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Impact of Climate Change on Poultry Production in Nigeria: A Co-integration Analysis Approach (1971-2012)

Opeyemi Eyitayo Ayinde1, Adebowale Olusola Adejumo2, Qazeem Akintola1, Toyin Benedict Ajibade1, Praise Oluwashogo Aina1

The level of performance of poultry production does not depend on its genetic make up only but also to a large extent on environmental conditions. Therefore, this study was carried out to examine the impact of rainfall and temperature on chicken and chicken egg production in Nigeria from 1971-2012. Time series data were used. Data on chicken production, egg production, temperature, and rainfall were obtained from various sources such as Nigeria Metrological Agency (NiMET), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAOSTAT), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Nigeria. Analytical tools employed in the study include unit root, Granger causality tests, and co-integration. The Granger causality tests showed that there is a linear causation from rainfall to egg production output while no directional causation was observed from rainfall to chicken production output in the period studied. The study revealed that a rise in maximum temperature negatively affects egg production while a lower minimum temperature has positive impact on production. A better understanding of climate impacts on poultry output is needed for the purpose of averting its effects on the total poultry production.

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